A significant work by renowned Japanese contemporary artist Yoshitomo Nara is preparing to enter the auction market, with expectations that it could sell for as much as $15 million. Titled In the Milky Lake / Thinking One (2011), the monumental painting will be offered through Fair Warning, the auction app founded by former Christie’s executive Loïc Gouzer, on November 19.
Measuring approximately 8.5 feet by 6 feet, the artwork is the largest painting by Nara ever to appear at auction. Estimated at $10 million to $15 million, it has remained in private ownership for 14 years and is expected to attract considerable attention from international collectors.
Unlike many of Nara’s familiar works, which feature children with defiant expressions and confrontational stares, this painting presents a more peaceful composition. Its central figure is a young girl with closed eyes and a serene expression, her body partially submerged in a pale pool of water. The scene reflects a quieter, more introspective side of the artist’s work.
Ahead of the sale, the painting will be exhibited from November 6 through 19 at 534 West 22nd Street in Chelsea, New York. The exhibition space has been designed to resemble a traditional Japanese temple, offering an atmospheric setting for the large-scale artwork.
Created in 2011, the painting emerged during a particularly difficult period in Nara’s life and artistic career. That year, the devastating Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami struck northeastern Japan, including the region where he grew up. The tragedy deeply affected the artist and temporarily prevented him from returning to painting.
When Nara eventually resumed working, his artistic direction began to change. The familiar rebellious and sometimes menacing children that had defined much of his earlier work gradually gave way to more contemplative and emotionally restrained figures.
In the Milky Lake / Thinking One was the only major painting he completed that year, making it an especially important work in his artistic development.
Since its creation, the painting has featured in several prestigious museum exhibitions, including a 2012 survey in Japan, his 2021 retrospective at the Los Angeles County Museum of Art, and subsequent presentations at the Guggenheim Bilbao, Museum Frieder Burda, and London’s Hayward Gallery. Nara also selected the work for inclusion in his 2015 publication, Self-Selected Works: Paintings.
Its upcoming auction coincides with the November New York sales at Christie’s, Sotheby’s, and Phillips, where much of the attention is expected to focus on established 20th-century masters such as Wassily Kandinsky, Claude Monet, Andy Warhol, and Jean-Michel Basquiat.
However, Fair Warning founder Loïc Gouzer believes collectors may be ready to reconsider contemporary art following several years of market uncertainty. Between 2021 and 2023, speculative buying pushed prices for certain contemporary artists to extraordinary levels before many of those markets experienced significant corrections.
Gouzer argues that Nara occupies a different position within the contemporary art landscape. He considers the artist an established blue-chip name whose relatively limited production makes significant works particularly desirable. Unlike artists whose markets were driven largely by speculation and high-volume production, Nara’s reputation is supported by the quality and rarity of his work.
He also believes today’s collectors are increasingly interested in acquiring distinctive artworks rather than pieces that simply follow market trends.
Nara’s auction record currently stands at $24.9 million, achieved at Sotheby’s Hong Kong in 2019 when Knife Behind Back (2000) was sold. Although his market has moderated since its peak, major paintings continue to command eight-figure prices. In 2023, a related work titled In the Milky Lake (2012), featuring similarly contemplative imagery, achieved $12.8 million at Sotheby’s Hong Kong.
Another development potentially influencing renewed interest in the artist is his changing gallery representation. In November 2025, David Zwirner announced that it would represent Nara following his 14-year relationship with Pace Gallery. Pace subsequently confirmed that it would continue working with the artist.
On November 5, David Zwirner is scheduled to open Nara’s first solo exhibition with the gallery across two Chelsea locations. The presentation will feature new paintings, drawings, sculptures, and earlier works personally selected by the artist.
Gouzer believes the gallery transition could introduce a fresh perspective on Nara’s career and generate additional interest in his work. He compares an artist to a musical note and a gallery to an instrument, suggesting that a change in representation can influence how audiences experience an artist’s creative output.
Beyond the gallery and auction circuit, Nara’s influence is also receiving renewed institutional attention. Three of his monumental sculptures have recently gone on display at the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden in Washington, D.C.
Looking ahead, Gouzer remains confident that Nara’s auction record will eventually be surpassed. He believes a major painting could one day achieve $30 million or even $40 million, although he is not necessarily predicting those figures for the November sale.
With its impressive scale, important exhibition history, and connection to a defining moment in Japanese history, In the Milky Lake / Thinking One is shaping up to be one of the season’s most compelling contemporary art offerings. Its November auction will offer another indication of just how strongly collectors value Nara’s distinctive artistic vision.
